HDB
Financial Services — GMP & Market Sentiment
(as of 25 June)
|
Factor |
Details |
|
Today’s GMP (Grey Market
Premium) |
₹74 |
|
IPO Price / Expected Listing
Price (Unofficial) |
₹740 + ₹74 = ~₹814 (expected on
GMP basis) |
|
Market Expectation Before |
30% premium on listing — i.e.
₹950+ |
|
Reality Now (Market Sentiment) |
GMP down → listing gain
expectation ~10% (₹810-820 range) |
|
Market Fear |
Investors worried ki listing pe
returns muted ho sakte hain, ya volatility ho sakti hai |
|
Possible Reason for Fear |
GMP lagataar soft ho raha
haiSentiment cautious hai due to valuation concernsLarge IPO size —
supply-demand mismatch ho sakta hai |
💡 Market Logic
➡ GMP ₹74 on ₹740 price = ~10% premium
➡ Market me pehle 30%+ listing gain ki ummeed thi (₹950 tak)
➡ Ab reality me log cautious ho rahe hain — ho sakta hai listing day pe
selling pressure aaye
🔑 Kya dekhna chahiye before
listing date?
✅ GMP daily track karo (agar ₹50-₹70 tak aur girta hai, listing pe
pressure badhega)
✅ QIB/HNI subscription data dekho
✅ Market sentiment (Banking & NBFC stocks pe pressure ho toh impact
ho sakta hai)
|
Brokerage
Firm |
Viewpoint |
|
SBI Securities |
Strong
governance, AAA credit, brand support → Subscribe |
|
Centrum Broking |
“Strong brand,
diversified model, AAA rating” → Subscribe |
|
Arihant Capital |
Emphasizes long‑term
structural growth and ~3.87x P/B valuation → Subscribe for long‑term
|
⚠️
Caution Points
Raised
·
Valuation is premium; price-band (740)
already reflects hefty multiples.
·
Competition in NBFC space could limit
near-term upside.
·
RBI may later ask HDFC to reduce stake
below 20% (governance risk)
📊 Key Analyst Takeaways
· SBI Securities, Arihant Capital, Centrum Broking – sab ne “Subscribe” (ya long‑term) rating di Hai, citing:
o Strong fundamentals, HDFC Bank backing
o Attractive P/B ratio (~3.2–3.9x) compared to peers
·
SEBI‑registered
analyst Mayank Singh Chandel:
“…better suited for long‑term investors given
strong fundamentals, premium valuations and HDFC Bank’s credibility. …IPO is
not cheap, which makes it more suitable for long‑term investors.”
· Mint / Highbrow Securities:
o Called it pivotal for NBFC sector — “test case for how public markets value diversified lenders in an era of tightening regulations”
2. Strengths & Growth
Potential
·
Backed by HDFC
Bank, offering credibility, robust governance, and AAA credit rating.
·
Grown AUM to
Rs 1.07 lakh Cr, ~24% CAGR since FY23; focus on secured retail lending
and underbanked Tier 2–4 geography.
·
Well-diversified
business verticals: Enterprise lending, asset finance, consumer finance;
tech-driven underwriting.
·
Profitable since
FY23; FY25 PAT of ₹2,176 Cr, though down 11.6% YoY; ROE at ~14.7%.
3. Risks & Concerns
·
Asset
quality: Gross NPA rose to
~2.26%, net NPA ~1% — higher compared to rivals like Bajaj Finance (0.44%)
·
Borrowing
cost: ~7.9%, exceeds peers; may
compress margins.
·
Regulatory
risks: RBI’s proposed norms
could force HDFC Bank to reduce stake, raising conflict-of-interest concerns
· Market risk: Large IPO (~₹12,500 Cr) with hefty OFS; oversupply might weigh on listing dynamics
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